March Madness comes around again, one of the stamping, pounding jewels of the sports calendar, a college basketball tournament that sets fans and bettors spinning. Millions of people fill out their brackets each year, hoping to guess the winner(s) in the 68-team tournament. One of those most exhilarating aspects of the tournament is its upsets where lower-seeded teams slay giants. But what explains their prevalence, and what surprises might be in store this year’s NCAA March Madness?
Why March Madness Is the NCAA Tournament of Upsets
The NCAA tournament’s single-elimination structure ensures that each and every game is meaningful. As you can see this high-pressure environment leads anything to happen. Historically, lower seeds have upset teams ahead of them, causing chaos on the bracket and in the hearts of fans everywhere. There are multiple factors in the unpredictability of March Madness:
High Pressures: No one can afford to lose a game here; it’s basically sudden death for every team. As a result, performances often become erratic.
Underdogs Rising to the Occasion: March Madness has long been a time for the underdog to shine. Less nationally-known teams often come out guns blazing, using their underdog status to surprise bigger-name programs.
The One-and-Done Format: One bad game can send a high seed packing. It comes down to the fact that teams that might have been mediocre or worse in the regular season can peak at just the right time and take advantage of the weaknesses of a higher seed.
History’s Most Famous NCAA March Madness Upsets
Each tournament has its surprises, but some upsets become part of World Cup history. Let’s take a look back at some of the best underdog stories.
Florida Gulf Coast’s Sweet Sixteen Run (2013)
FLORIDA GULF COAST 2013 (No. 15 seed) As a No. 15 seed, Florida Gulf Coast’s startling march to the Sweet Sixteen is one of the greatest surprises in recent memory. They came out of nowhere, upsetting No. 2 seed Georgetown and No. 7 seed San Diego State, stunning the nation with their fast, high-flying way of playing.
Elite Eight: Saint Peter’s (2022)
Darlings of the tournament, Saint Peter’s had an improbable run to the Elite Eight as a No. 15 seed, taking down the likes of Kentucky and Purdue. Their stiff tournament showing only underscored the fickle nature of March Madness.
The historic tournament runs of Oral Roberts and Princeton (2021 & 2023)
Oral Roberts, a No. 15 seed, stunned the world when it eliminated both Ohio State and Florida in 2021. Just like Princeton’s impressive showing in 2023, which featured a victory over No. 2 seed Arizona, providing further evidence of the need to keep an eye out for lower-seeded teams.
Butler’s Back-to-Back Title Game Appearances (2010 & 2011)
Butler misses when it comes to mid-major teams that made consecutive trips to the NCAA title game as a No. 5 and No. 8 seed. As underdogs, there was a lesson that heart, teamwork, and strategy often triumphed over pure natural ability.
Which NCAA March Madness Upsets to Bet on this Year
As March Madness closes in, fans and bettors are eyeing potential upsets. Here are some predictions to keep in mind:
Watch for Possible 12 vs. 5 Upsets: The No. 12 seed has historically been a dangerous team for No. 5 seeds. These matchups are where the underdog could very well prevail.
Teams to Watch from Outside the Power Leagues: Teams from conferences outside the power leagues have often thrived in the tournament. So look for the Atlantic 10 or Mountain West to spring some surprises.
Teams With Strong Senior Leadership: The best teams featuring upperclassmen have proven to be more reliable in late game or high-pressure situations so a matchup against a team studded with freshman and sophomores generally included as top programs could lead to an upset.
Learn More: The Magic of the NCAA March Madness Upsets
NCAA March Madness upsets, with their unpredictability and excitement, are what make the tournament such a captivating event. While we can never predict all the outcomes, one thing for certain is that there will always be surprises. Whether it be a No. 15 seed that finds its way to the Final Four or a blue-blood powerhouse getting bounced in the first round, the wonder of March Madness is its unpredictability that keeps fans on the edge of their seats.
